Global Warming: The Procrastination Conundrum
Martin Bartels
27 December 2022
The number of people on Earth has exceeded 8 billion. What happens when all of them are exposed to a collective risk? How should citizens, governments, businesses and organisations respond? Under what conditions could we develop and implement a strategy of coordinated measures to defend ourselves?
This article compares two real-life threat scenarios that triggered a decisive and carefully planned action in one case, and a weak response in the other. The comparison aims to kickstart a discussion on how to respond to the second threat.
Threat no 1: “NEO = Near Earth Objects”
Near Earth Objects are asteroids or comets that could hit our planet.
Most objects break up and burn up in the atmosphere when they come into contact with it. Small objects often reach the Earth’s surface and only occasionally does this get into the press. At irregular intervals, however, there have been larger impacts on the surface.
Some errant space objects can be very large. If, or when, these big objects hit the earth, the effect would not be limited to local physical damage. Tidal waves, changes in the temperature of the atmosphere, or the darkening of the sky over long periods of time by dust particles are just some of the effects of large asteroids that can cause incalculable harm worldwide.
The asteroid that 66 million years ago triggered a massive extinction of species worldwide and put an end to the era of the dinosaurs is familiar on an intellectual level to us, but its distance in time makes it feel irrelevant. We may be slightly more familiar with a much smaller object that exploded and caused widespread devastation in Siberia on 30 June 1908 ("The Tunguska event"). Capital market experts use this example to caution that even the most prudent investment strategy can collapse at any time by an unforeseeable event (e.g. the explosion of a comet of the Tunguska scale over a densely populated area).
There have always been NEO events, but the shock was immediate when the NASA Galileo Orbiter and Hubble Space Telescope witnessed the Shoemaker-Levy 9 comet breaking into pieces between 16 and 24 July 1993, destroying vast areas of the neighbouring planet Jupiter with the force of 300 million atomic bombs and heating the atmosphere up to at least 30,000 °C.
Something comparable, possibly the impact of a larger asteroid, could wipe out human civilisation. Even if the statistical probability of an event is extremely low, the magnitude of the damage that may result if it occurs is a sufficient reason to act.#
The observation of a dramatic event on a neighbouring planet was the tailwind for an extensive array of globally coordinated activities:
- The European Space Agency developed "Fly Eye", a technology allowing the early detection of potentially dangerous objects more than 40 metres wide, starting in 2030.
- NASA initiated the development of the NEOWISE technology, which enables the early detection of NEOs by infrared telescopes.
- On 26 September 2022, NASA succeeded in forcing a smaller asteroid named "Dimorphos" into a different orbit by a planned collision with a spacecraft named “DART”.
This happened at a distance of 23,000 km (!) from earth, and the success of this deflection, confirmed by subsequent measurements, is evidence that the "kinetic impact" method works under certain conditions. A "gravity tractor" or a nuclear standoff (!) are other technically conceivable approaches. The size of the object can make a lot of difference.
All this is not to say that we are perfectly safe from NEOs, but our complete helplessness in the face of them is no longer the case.
We note that:
- The occurrence of the global risk is not likely, but the scenario is easy to understand.
- Governments have acknowledged the scale of the risk after seeing events on Jupiter unfold rapidly in 1993, and thus decided to provide necessary financial resources to cope with it.
- Scientists have successfully developed some early approaches to identifying and averting the global threat within three decades.
Threat no 2: global warming
The damage to our planet, by an initially slow and now accelerating industrialisation processes, industrialised agriculture and particularly power generation, which has led to environmental pollution and the overheating of the atmosphere, has been known for decades. There are still sceptics who question the observations, but they cannot offer any other explanation or remedy for rising sea levels and the increase in weather disasters.
Although the facts are clear, it is obvious that not enough action is being taken to slow down or reverse the collective downward spiral. Concrete consequences of the resolutions adopted by global conferences are difficult to discern and it’s clear that the status quo is neither sufficient nor suitable for overcoming the threat.
Lamentation does not help, moral appeals and dispute about ethical principles do not help, hope without action does not help. Soup thrown on classical paintings probably has the least possible effect. The inertia seems overwhelming. We are moving towards disaster with our eyes wide open.
What’s interesting though, is the chasm of difference between the prevailing lukewarm reaction of governing institutions to global warming and the rational and determined response to the threat posed by Near Earth Objects.
Reasons for indecisiveness
So what are the reasons for the objectively inadequate responses to climate change.
One reason is that while most of the world's countries are or will be affected, many of them do not have the technical and financial means to take effective action. Thus it appears they can only demand financial compensation for environmental damage. But even if such commitments were kept, compensation would not reduce the global threat.
Another reason may be psychological. The thought of a quick and catastrophic disaster (e.g., a giant asteroid hitting our planet) seems more tangible and dramatic than the prospect of gradual deterioration. The tendency to put off unpleasant things and give in to the hope that the worst will not happen is human nature and cannot be changed. Most of the time it pays off, but not here.
What we are learning is that the tendency to procrastinate affects not only individuals but also larger entities such as states, political parties, companies and associations.
Another explanation is offered by behavioural economics under the heading "Prospect Theory and Loss Aversion": There is consistent evidence that the emotional reaction of human beings to a loss is about twice as intense as that to a gain of the same size. So if people believe that a proposed change in their living conditions would make them economically worse off, they will build up strong emotional resistance. Rational arguments can hardly overcome these emotions.
It is fair to point out that the economists’ findings come from the observation of individuals. They do not (yet) cover the case of a collective loss of wealth. Nevertheless, we propose the extension of the "Loss Aversion Theory" as a working hypothesis.
If one combines the above arguments and the hypothesis with the prevailing perception among the population that averting a climate catastrophe will be extremely expensive and will thus entail a loss of prosperity, an explanation emerges as to why governments and companies are treading water: they have not found a way to communicate the necessity of structural change to their citizens and shareholders as in line with their interests.
How to overcome the proclivity to procrastination
Our emotions shift immediately when a shock occurs. This would be the case if, for example, a dramatic flood happened in one part of the world as a result of rising sea levels and a great many people lost their lives.
Perhaps this sort of scenario could happen and lead to systematic mobilisation against climate change. But it would be incredibly cynical to have a mitigation strategy based on waiting for a horror to arise.
The civilised and therefore preferable way is to change the narrative about the expected scenario, and to do so in a strictly realistic and emotionally engaging way at the same time.
What are the goals of science and technology?
The criteria for climate-friendly new technologies in the crucial energy sector can be presented in a nutshell:
Present status
The path that takes a scientific discovery to market maturity and broad distribution is long and inevitably fraught with many obstacles. Worldwide, there is an extremely high level of activity and progress in the area of research and development within the framework described above.
But in many areas, without the public taking much note, technologies have become highly advanced:
- Space technology has recently succeeded in locating and quantifying known and unknown "super-emitters" of climate gases on Earth so that action can be taken on the ground.
- Renewable energies are often produced at times when there is little demand for energy. So storage facilities are needed that can immediately deliver energy during peak hours. New solutions for storing energy generated from renewables are now reaching market maturity, e.g. highly efficient thermal batteries and batteries made from readily available and cheap raw materials.
- The energy yield of solar cells is constantly increasing.
- Cheaply produced environmentally friendly "green" hydrogen is becoming increasingly likely as a substitute for coke, natural gas and oil in industry, at the same time as, or possibly after the use of "red" hydrogen. One industrialised nation has put all its eggs in this latter basket, even though there will be more nuclear waste.
- The transport of hydrogen in the form of ammonia for shipping is already routine. The storage of hydrogen as a paste is fully developed and promises to solve problems of safety and logistics. Development of hydrogen storage in the form of powder is underway.
- “Lego”, “Click”: Materials science is accelerating discovery processes by increasingly replacing lengthy experiments with the use of advanced information technologies. Scientists can thus generate hitherto non-existent artificial materials that are tailor-made for specific functions.
- Fusion research, which has been going on for many decades, has recently made sudden progress via start-ups that have impressed the expert sceptics. A not too distant prospect would be very cheap energy from readily available raw materials, combined with minimal externalities.
Some paths will turn out to be dead ends, new paths will prove their worth. Industrial use cases are becoming more specific and can change. These are normal processes. The overall movement is forward, and fast.
Outlook
These are just a few pieces of a complex mosaic. But these are already proof that a public narrative oriented towards the completing the picture is viable and capable of replacing a defeatism that disorients citizens. This defeatism can be replaced by an honest presentation of facts and prospects.
The armies that fight against global warming are made up of first-class scientists and engineers. Once they have clear targets, well-funded budgets and minimal distraction from bureaucratic obstacles, they can deliver. They are the most reliable élite we have.
Once the scientists and engineers get the support and respect they deserve, we will move out of the fog.
There is no reason to worry about our industry. In a market economy, change is the recipe for growth and prosperity and useful new technologies are its catalysts.
“If you’re going through hell, keep going.” (Who said that?)
To set the stage
Lao Tzu’s words sum up a dramatic contemporary scenario: While in some parts of the world people are increasingly affected by water scarcity, others face the growing threat of too much water due to extremely heavy rainfall and rising sea levels.
While the poem captures the ambivalence of water perfectly, the words "soft and weak" also seem to describe the way modern civilisations have responded to it. Their foggy perception and sluggish action is just as dangerous as the threats themselves.
Why Water?
The focus of this essay is to use the prominent example of water to help identify concrete approaches for dealing rationally with the issue of climate change. Climate change affects us in many ways, including the expansion of deserts, forest fires, the salinisation of soils, landslides, extreme weather events, agricultural crop losses, loss of biodiversity, spread of disease and human and wildlife migration.
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Scientists and engineers have laid the foundations for our prosperity. And only these elites can show us the way to overcome the harmful externalities of these very engines of our wealth. This article supports the thesis that we are technologically and organisationally in a position to successfully meet these challenges, step by step.
One obstacle to the mobilisation of existing resources lies in the fact that the general public has only a vague understanding of the issue. They do not realise that, unless we make controlled sacrifices, nature will impose uncontrollable sacrifices on us.
We urgently need to overcome the human tendency to trivialise and understand with our minds and hearts what will happen if we do not listen to the guidance of our scientists and engineers. However, while these experts hold the keys to the right strategies, they are only trained to communicate with other scientists. This leads to a situation of misunderstanding and therefore a lack of adequate action.
Blurred perception of facts
Every day, we are all exposed to an overdose of reports about minor and major disasters in all forms of media. We more or less defend ourselves against this by ignoring some news, i.e. reducing the strain on our nerves by filtering information. It is human nature to rely on the mostly correct assumption that unpleasant developments will eventually end and change for the better. In the case of climate change, however, looking away and hoping things resolve themselves doesn’t appear to be a winning strategy.
A wealth of scientific analyses on climate change is available to everyone, but these are mostly comprehensible only for other scientists.
We should openly acknowledge that most people in the northern hemisphere have a sense of empathy for people "in the south" who are plagued by overpowering rains, flooded lowlands, islands disappearing into the water, eroding coastlines or droughts. However, the geographical distance and lack of awareness of the frequency of such disasters dilute solidarity. Collective psychological repression can set in quickly.
Most people in the northern hemisphere do not consider an increase in average temperatures of a few degrees to be alarming. Many even express relief that the winter is often milder than in the past. Loud protests by campaigners are experienced and understood by most citizens as a disturbance or perhaps exaggerated fearmongering.
At the level of policy, scientifically informed decision-makers attend international conferences on climate change, where they negotiate with other decision-makers on action plans that have no teeth but are presented as hard-won progress. And they are increasingly supporting “green” sectors of the economy. However, they are often reluctant to share the full extent of their knowledge about the problem because they do not want to jeopardise their recognition by “rocking the boat”.
The factual impact level is decisive for citizens
There is controversy about the interplay of causes of climate warming (industrial emissions, volcanic activity, ocean currents, etc.). We don't want to debate that here. What is more relevant are the changes in global average temperatures and their trends, as determined by scientific methods.
- Uniqueness: The most important fact is that a warming of 1.5%, 2% or even more is highly unusual in geological terms. If we are looking for a comparable global warming of this magnitude, we have to go back to the Pliocene: "Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum". This period was 5.3 to 1.8 million years before our era. The causes back then were different and the temperature rise did not occur at the same speed as today. A comparison with the more imaginable “Medieval Warm Period” in the years from 750 to 1350 CE may appear plausible at first sight. However, this consideration cannot reassure us, because the temperatures were lower than today, and it was not a global phenomenon.
- Causality: Increasing global warming is causing glaciers and polar ice sheets to melt. At the same time, the increased temperatures in the oceans are causing the mass of water to expand. The combination of both factors has an impact on islands and the coastlines of the continents. These include the rising of sea levels and temporary or long lasting floods inland. The number of extreme rainfall events inland with destructive power has increased significantly in recent decades, with regional differences. East Asia is most affected. An additional knock-on effect results from the release of the greenhouse gas methane, much of which has been previously locked up in frozen land and is now being released as it thaws.
- Dimension: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (“IPCC”) has concluded that there has been a 1% increase of average temperatures since preindustrial times until 2017. The IPCC projects another 0.5% increase over the next 20 years. This assumes what is not certain, namely that greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced immediately, quickly and on a large scale. However, the latest "sclerosponge thermometry" research results suggest that the rise in average temperature is 0.5°C higher than the IPCC consensus. This means that by the end of this decade, almost 20 years earlier than expected, global warming could already be 2°C above pre-industrial levels. . In the following, however, we continue to refer to the lower IPCC estimates. According to IPCC calculations, it is to be expected that water levels will rise between 0.65 and 1.1 metres by the year 2100. Other models project between 1 and 3 metres by the year 2100. Not all coastal areas will be exposed in the same way. Ocean currents, tidal range and the topography of the coastal areas will make major differences. Through simulations, readers are given a vivid idea of how water will change our living conditions. It is important to note that the northern hemisphere does not enjoy a privilege, meaning that torrential rain, flooding and storm surges are increasing and will continue to do so there too. It should be noted that sea level rises of up to 30 metres are not unusual in geological history.
- Other causes:
There have been dramatic rises in sea levels in history that were linked to the melting of ice at the end of an ice age, i.e. not to the CO2 content of the atmosphere. At the end of the last ice age, around 10,000 years ago, there was a rise of up to 120 metres, albeit through a slower process than the change caused by climate gases today. The result was a significant retreat of coastlines.
Instantaneous interruption or reversal of a climatic process?
Changes to the climate are not new in human history, and certain events have triggered reductions in temperature. A striking example of a break in climatic developments is the eruption of an Icelandic volcano in the year 536 CE, whose dust made the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere so opaque to sunlight over a period of more than 20 years that temperatures fell drastically ("Little Ice Age").
Recently, it has been hypothesised that ice ages were triggered by asteroids.
It may be tempting to pin our hopes on the possibility of such events helping us to mitigate climate change, but while we cannot rule them out, events of this kind are rare and unpredictable, we must not include them in projections. It would be absurd to hope for random external causes that could interrupt or stop the progress of global warming. While hope is a human propensity, it is not suitable for contingency planning.
Our real bottleneck
What is preventing us from taking appropriate action to minimise and reverse the rise in average temperatures?
Citizen perception of the nature and dimension of the threat is inevitably blurred, because the daily reports from the media are mostly unstructured and not comprehensible to non-scientists. The reports do not allow us to recognise the essentials.
Citizens need an overview that is communicated in an honest, understandable and clearly structured way. Only when citizens have realised the nature and scale of the problem will decision-makers have the courage to take action with determination. In essence, it is about legitimising protection strategies that are considered unpopular today.
Given that citizens do not have access to graspable knowledge, we have a transformation problem. And this can be overcome if science presents the overall scenario from a certain distance. Figuratively speaking: It is not about describing every pixel point of an image, but about showing the image as a whole. The holistic representation deviates from the usual approach of scientists, because each of them is professionally held to focus on "pixel points" in their respective area of specialisation. This is the only way science makes progress, but that's not what is needed here.
The contours of the hologram can be communicated in an understandable way using e.g. the key points mentioned above:
- uniqueness: there has never been a rise in atmospheric temperatures as fast as now
- causality: the most important trigger is industrial emissions
- dimension: a rise in atmospheric temperatures of 1.5 or 2° Celsius or more above pre-industrialisation levels will massively weaken our civilisations
- other causes: additional factors can further exacerbate the process
If the effect of a detail is not legible, the presentation of the measurement can be improved. In particular, the exponential impact of very small changes in average temperatures in the atmosphere goes very much against human intuition. We can compensate for this disadvantage in perspective: Instead of referring to changes in temperature in degrees Celsius, we should consistently communicate changes in basis points, i.e. in hundredths of a degree Celsius. For example, labelling a temperature rise as "32 basis points" would be correct and would make the difference easier to comprehend than "0.32 °C". This method is a common practice in the financial industry. There, too, this method of representation is helpful in raising awareness that a small change can have massive implications.
Comparing our planet with human bodies helps us to comprehend the effect of changes in temperature: If your body temperature rises by 1° Celsius, you have a fever and are not feeling well. If the temperature rises by 1.5 or even 2° Celsius, you are very ill and hardly able to work. It is similar with our planet: If it experiences increases in average temperatures of this magnitude, it shows the symptoms of a "serious illness". However, this "fever" does not go away after a few days.Truthful and comprehensible holographic description will work like a call to action as sensible citizens will refuse to accept the idea that their lives, that of their children or that of their grandchildren, will be exposed to significant and unparalleled danger.
Here is a simple example of a call to action: It is true that the onset of toothache does not necessarily trigger a reaction in us straight away. We are perhaps still hoping that it will go away on its own. But at some point we turn to the dentist for help. We may later find the dentist's bill stressful, but the relief of finding a solution to the problem outweighs this. It is necessary that we anticipate, that we sense the expected greater pain, in order to take the initiative.
Governments will only act vigorously when informed citizens demand it vigorously. There has been pressure from sections of the population for a long time, but its direction has always been vague and therefore not sufficiently effective.
And like a dentist, a government cannot act for free, but will send bills to taxpayers. The later the comprehensive strategy is implemented, the higher the bill.
Defensive and offensive measures
The necessary government action plans are not the subject of this article. It should only be mentioned that defensive measures are necessary first, e.g., improved meteorological warning systems, raising and strengthening of dams and dykes on the sea coast and rivers, preparation for the abandonment of non-defensible areas. In addition, measures are needed to halt the dangerous trend and then slowly reverse it. These essentially consist of avoiding emissions and removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.
Desperate measures?
The keyword for desperate actions is "geoengineering". This could imply approaches such as making either the atmosphere or our oceans absorb less sunlight or bind more CO2. While these approaches sound exciting, they are not fully developed and run the risk of causing irreversible damage. As such it is unlikely they will be used.
Sabotage of the communication of scientific work
There are two groups working against open and fair communication between science and the citizens.
Refuseniks who are not interested in facts work against this. They are used to believing their own feelings and those of their friends from social networks. There should be no discussion with them, because deviations from their assumptions act as fuel for them. Science will not lead them out of their dream worlds.
Then there are the sceptics, who may have expert knowledge but only select those parts of it for their thinking and communication that seem to support their rejection of action. This is a dangerous species, because “expert” sceptics can claim some credibility and can disrupt societal communication successfully. The only way to weaken these people is to persistently ask them for better and well-founded alternatives. Then they have to provide verifiable answers or quietly hoist the white flag.
Acknowledgements:
My heartfelt thanks go to Professor Reinhard Gast. As a practising geologist and experienced researcher, he has helped me to grasp the exponential impact of seemingly minimal changes in the temperature of our atmosphere, similar to our own bodies, and the uniqueness of the current situation.
Authorship disclosure:
Fully human generated