Global Population Decline is Like Quicksand: The More we Struggle without a Good Plan, the Faster we Sink

Demographic growth

Before we address demographic decline, we first need to consider its opposite: At the start of the 19th century there were around 1 billion people on the planet. Following this came a slow growth to about 2.5 billion people in 1950. By 2005 there were 6.5 billion. At present, we have already passed the 8 billion mark. Over the decades these population developments have raised the overriding question of whether it is possible to produce sufficient food for everyone on this planet.

The supply of food depends on many factors, such as harvesting technology, transport, storage systems, trading systems, etc., but in terms of food production, science has made and is making a very significant contribution to feeding the world's growing population. The main issues are irrigation, fertiliser, pest control and new breeds. There are ongoing controversies about the methodologies and the results, but that is not the issue here. What is important is that, although it may be impossible to completely eradicate food shortages and starvation, we have achieved a significant reduction in these phenomena.

Trend reversal towards demographic decline

The number of births required to prevent a decline in population ('replacement fertility rate') varies according to the circumstances of each country and is between 2.1 and 3.0 per woman. While it was noted above that the world's population grew significantly since about 1950, the rate of growth has, in recent years, become negative. Although statistics differ somewhat, there is a clear consensus that well over half the world's nation states now have fertility rates below the critical level of 2.1. Particularly low levels have been recorded in South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan. There is still significant population growth in countries south of the Sahara, but even there, growth rates are falling steadily and they are equally set for decline.

This trend towards decline has been strong and sustained for decades. The desire for a change of direction is widespread, and political decision makers have tested measures conducive to larger families, thereby halting or reversing population decline. As it turns out, they cannot win the battle.

The reasons for the decline are fundamental, they lie in a combination of the civilisational and technological factors that are emblematic of modernising societies. One of the causes is the use of the internet and especially social media, which contributes to isolation and ultimately to a reduction in the number of couples. There is no way to stop this. The trend could only be reversed if we could turn the clock back 100 years. We are thus compelled to swallow the toad. Yet, there is scope to mitigate the impact of population decline.

Impact

The following diagram shows the principal effects of population decline. Their quantification depends on the social and economic conditions in each country.

The above developments will impact human behaviour and culture. However, we will not speculate on this here. While the rapid growth of the world's population has been a serious cause for concern, there is no reason to believe that the reverse - dealing with population decline - will be any less challenging. Therefore, there is much to suggest that the measures taken by many countries to mitigate the effects of a decreasing population should be maintained and developed further.

Postponement of retirement

The first measure that springs to mind when it comes to reducing the effects of population decline is reducing the number of pensioners by raising the retirement age in relevant countries. This process is underway in many countries. It must be approached in a highly differentiated manner, as extending working life could exceed the health limits of certain professions involving physical labour. It is extremely challenging for a government to convince its citizens of the necessity of delaying retirement, which is why it is so important to consider the role of comprehensible communication in this process. There is likely to be emotionally charged resistance. This explains the tendency of decision-makers to postpone such measures, thereby exacerbating the situation.

Reversal of historical migrations

From the East: Over a period of more than 250 years, there were several waves of emigration from the German states to the Russian Empire. Most of these emigrants managed to retain their language and culture, even though they had no connection with the former homeland of their ancestors. From around 1950 and especially after 1990, about 4.5 million of them moved to Germany. Furthermore, more than 300,000 ethnic Germans have immigrated from Poland since 1975. Between 1950 and 1989, more than 200,000 ethnic Germans emigrated from Romania to Germany. Between 1978 and 1989, an agreement with Romania allowed the West German government to 'buy' ethnic Germans at prices between DM 5,000 and DM 11,000 per capita, essentially paying for immigrants. These substantial movements effectively relieved the demographic pressure that the domestic Germans were barely aware of. These possibilities are now exhausted. A significant return migration of ethnic Germans from the Americas is not likely.

From the West: After the discovery of the Americas, large parts of Latin America became predominantly Spanish-speaking. Even after the end of the colonial period, during the Spanish Civil War for example, there were significant additional emigration movements from Spain to Latin America. Since this year, immigration rules have been put in place in Spain that are starting to respond to the country's demographic bottleneck. They do not explicitly favour Latin Americans, but they will facilitate the integration of the numerous Latin Americans already living in the country. Spain now only needs to open up the gates a little more in order to rebalance the demographic structure. The country is privileged by its natural access to a large pool of culturally related potential migrants and is in a position to precisely calibrate the influx over the next few years to balance the country's demographics. However, reversing historical migration flows is an option for only a few countries.

Selective and increasingly massive immigration

A selective immigration policy requires a country to first identify areas of the labour market where there is a shortage of human resources. Such policies include simplified visa procedures, integration programs, and support services for newcomers. Based on this analysis, criteria for recruiting immigrants can be established. While some countries have adopted a proactive approach, others are still taking a more cautious stance. Overall, however, the trend is gaining momentum in industrialised countries.

It cannot be ruled out that national states will pay premiums for immigrants in some sectors, similar to the German example mentioned above. A cash premium can be cheaper than the damage caused by bottlenecks in critical sectors of national value chains. This would be a wider adoption of the usual private sector 'head hunting' procedures.

No matter how carefully selective immigration strategies are planned, how well the newly recruited immigrants are prepared, or how clearly and balanced the measures are explained to the population, xenophobic populists will still fight against them. Reactionaries are trained to keep their adrenaline levels high at all times, impairing their ability to think clearly. However, their chances of being heard are diminishing because their policies would result in a loss of prosperity.

Downside of immigration

If countries of origin still have a birth surplus and train more people than their national economy needs, they are not disadvantaged by emigration. Emigration counteracts unemployment and discontent. Otherwise, however, competitive situations arise. On the other hand, as countries that offer career prospects and a higher standard of living have a better chance of asserting their interests and attracting immigrants, conflicts of interest between countries are inevitable, especially if countries of origin are victim of 'brain drain', the phenomena in which valuable domestic talent are lost to other countries.

Technology

The replacement of human labour by machines, automated production and robotics began centuries ago. This has resulted in a reduction in the demand for skilled labour, and this trend is set to continue. The question of what impact the increased use of new technologies such as artificial intelligence will have on the structure and scope of the demand for skilled professionals is currently the subject of intensive scientific research and discussion.

The ever-increasing ability of industries to produce greater quantities of goods at lower cost is difficult to reconcile with the fact that there are fewer and fewer consumers with declining purchasing power as a result of their obligations to older citizens. There are no historical precedents that could be compared with this scenario. Debates on this issue will remain open for a long time to come.

That said, there are certainly areas in which technology will always play a subordinate role. One such area is the care of the elderly. There will always be a need for human labour in professions where care is paramount. Therefore, when it comes to issues of population decline and skill matching, the care industry is one that politicians should be paying attention to.

Conclusion

In his highly acclaimed book "The Revolt of the Masses", published in 1929, José Ortega y Gasset offered a drastic description of his perception of historically unprecedented population growth. Only a quarter of a century later, the world would reach a turning point, leading to a world with fewer and fewer masses. At first, no one realised this trend reversal. When it comes to population decline, the process cannot be stopped. However, strategies to mitigate the worst effects are available and can be further developed on an empirical basis.